Monday, August 08, 2005

This article is possibly the best yet from Mr. Simmons. Check it out at http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Simmons.html . Instead of $60/barrel (which is 42 gallons of oil) he suggests the real value & price of oil could and should realistically reach $210-$420/barrel. I agree and have thought this way for several years after looking at the value we get form all that stored potential energy and work. Here are some excerpts I selected from the interview on how unrealistically cheap oil is today:

"JIM: You gave an analogy in terms of how cheap oil is at $60/barrel, I wonder if you might share that with our listeners?
MATT: Sure. Because every time I get into a discussion now about the future of oil I always get asked, “well, where will oil prices be?” And my response is, “I don’t have any idea where they’re going to be, other than the fact I think on a secular move, we are still at a very, very cheap level of oil prices.” And that immediately gets a response, “Cheap?! Oil’s at $60 a barrel!” And one of the things I’ve observed is that people don’t really understand what a barrel is. They can kind of conceive what a barrel might look like. But when you put it in terms people can understand, I say “what $60 per barrel is, is 18 cents a pint.”
And then I get a response, “How did you do that?!”
“Well, you divide 60 by 42, to get a gallon of oil, and you divide a gallon by 8 to get a pint of oil, and that just happens to be 18 cents a pint.”
And then they say, “ Oh, that’s really cheap, isn’t it?”
And obviously it’s cheap. I don’t know what’s the next cheapest liquid we actually sell in any bulk is, that has any value. I suspect there are places around the United States where municipal water costs more than 18 cents a pint. And yet for some reason, we created a society that was built on a belief that oil prices in a normal range were some place in the $15-20 level. It turns out $15/barrel, which is the average price of oil – in 2004 dollars – it sold for, for the last 140 years, is less than 4 cents a pint. So we’ve basically used up the vast majority of the world’s high flow rate, high quality sweet oil at prices that were effectively so cheap, you basically couldn’t sustain an industry. And now we’re left with lots of oil. But it’s heavy, gunky, dirty, sour, contaminated with various things oil, it doesn’t come out of the ground very fast, is very energy intensive to get out of the ground and we’re going to pay a fortune for it. [13:42]"

"JIM: Based on reading your book, and the extensive studies – as you said many of these major oil wells are now at tipping points – we’re likely to wake up one day and find out that oil is over $100/barrel, we can’t meet...
Matt: It’s still cheap at $100!
JIM: Yeah, at $120 it’s 36 cents a pint, which is still cheap.
MATT: What the economists ought to be trying to figure out is: what constitutes a fair price for oil versus their belief that oil prices are really expensive today. I would argue that probably a number in the $5-10/gallon is a real bargain. [51:24]"

Last Thought-Oil at these prices would make many alternative energy sources look quite good financially.

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